Tom Brady’s Un-Retirement Sends Sportsbooks into a Frenzy
On Sunday, March 13, Tom Brady announced that his football career wasn’t finished. Just over a month after his original retirement announcement, Brady decided to return to Tampa Bay for his 23rd season of professional football. Before his announcement, the odds on the Buccaneers winning the Super Bowl had cratered as their quarterback situation was a major question mark.
These past two months I’ve realized my place is still on the field and not in the stands. That time will come. But it’s not now. I love my teammates, and I love my supportive family. They make it all possible. I’m coming back for my 23rd season in Tampa. Unfinished business LFG pic.twitter.com/U0yhRKVKVm
— Tom Brady (@TomBrady) March 13, 2022
Sports bettors everywhere flocked to place futures wagers on the Buccaneers, but sportsbooks were well in tune with the announcement and quickly removed Super Bowl and NFC Championship markets from the board before changing the odds. However, plenty of bettors had the opportunity to place bets on the Buccaneers with phenomenal odds before Brady’s announcement.
National Sportsbooks Drop the Odds
Before Tom Brady’s original retirement announcement, the Bucs had odds of +1400 to win the Super Bowl at Caesars and +1200 at DraftKings. However, after his retirement, Russell Wilson’s trade to the Broncos, and Aaron Rodgers’s return to the Packers, the Buccaneers’ odds had dropped to between +2500 and +2800 on most sportsbooks.
By Monday morning, all sportsbooks have adjusted their odds for Super Bowl LVII, the NFC Championship, the NFC South, and the NFL MVP. On DraftKings, the Buccaneers are now listed at +850 to win the Super Bowl, behind only the Bills, Chiefs, and Packers. They’re listed at +400 to win the NFC and -200 to win the NFC South. Tom Brady is listed at +1000 to win the MVP behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and Justin Herbert.
Sportsbooks on the Hook for Futures
While the odds now accurately reflect the likelihood that a Tom Brady-led Buccaneers team wins another Super Bowl this season, sportsbooks are on the hook for some significant bets made before the quarterback’s official announcement. With some highly lucrative odds available on the Buccaneers, big bettors stand to make a big profit.
One particular book at South Point in Las Vegas saw a bettor place large wagers on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 50-1 odds and 25-1 odds. After Brady’s announcement, the South Point sportsbook has now shifted to 4-1 odds. However, bookmaker Chris Andrew told VSiN that his book faces a “six-figure liability” should the Buccaneers hoist the Lombardi trophy.
Borgata sportsbook director told VSiN that a bettor wagered $10,000 on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl in New Jersey highly lucrative odds. BetMGM reported that it had seen 1.2% of bets and 1.3% of its total handle on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl. DraftKings head of sportsbook operations, Johnny Avello, told VSiN that there were big bettors “pecking away at [Tampa Bay]. It felt like they knew it was going to happen.”
What’s Next for Tampa Bay?
The Buccaneers have more moves to make to replenish this roster ahead of a hopeful Super Bowl push. After offensive guard Ali Marpet retired, and Alex Cappa signed with the Bengals, the interior of the offensive line could use some help. Re-signing Ryan Jensen was a good start, but the Bucs have several other notable in-house free agents, including cornerback Carlton Davis, tight end Rob Gronkowski, safety Jordan Whitehead, and defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh, Jason Pierre-Paul, William Gholston, and Steve McLendon. While the final 53-man roster is far from set in stone, the confirmed return of Tom Brady makes this team Super Bowl contenders again, and the odds are reflective of that across the sports betting landscape.