NFL Futures Friday: Eagles and Colts are Great Values
It’s never too early to start looking into NFL futures for the upcoming season, especially now that the significant offseason moves across the league have been made. Make sure you shop odds on these futures as they can differ considerably on different sportsbooks that you have in your market. This article will focus on two futures markets that I have my eye on.
Philadelphia Eagles Over 8.5 Wins
The Eagles have had one of the best offseasons of any team in the NFL and have the third-easiest schedule in the league based on opponents’ combined 2021 record. Still, they’re projected to win the same number of games as last year in the odds. That alone should have bettors very intrigued.
A.J. Brown is one of the best ascending talents at wideout in the NFL and should help Jalen Hurts have a much improved season. With Nick Sirriani’s solid coaching, a second-year jump from Devonta Smith, an elite offensive line, and continued improvement from Jalen Hurts, the Eagles could sneakily have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season.
On defense, the Eagles continued to add this offseason. James Bradberry forms a tremendous cornerback tandem with Darius Slay. Rookie
Jordan Davis offers elite athleticism and physicality in the middle of the defensive line. Haason Reddick immediately raises the floor of the pass-rush. Philly ranked just 18th in points allowed last season, which should improve considerably.
In recent weeks, the market has shifted considerably on the Eagles, and most sportsbooks have moved this number to 9 or 9.5, which I would frankly still bet. However, PointsBet still has the Eagles listed at over/under 8.5 wins at -170, and I’m more than willing to drink the juice on that line. I’d also be looking to sprinkle on the Eagles to win the NFC East, which Caesars still has at +240 odds.
Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South
The Colts finished three wins behind the Titans last season in the AFC South, but that difference shouldn’t be enough to scare you off what is quietly a significantly improved team on both sides of the ball. I’m betting the Colts to win this division at even odds and would take a look at their win total as well, which currently sits at 9.5 wins on most books.
Indianapolis ranked ninth in scoring last season despite their offensive line starters missing a combined 19 games due to injuries and COVID-19 absences. Matt Ryan will also be a significant upgrade at quarterback as he ranked 16th in PFF rankings compared to 28th for Carson Wentz despite Ryan having a much worse supporting cast. Now, he will be supported by Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor.
The Titans, meanwhile, lost A.J. Brown this offseason, which will have a significant impact on their offense. Expecting Treylon Burks to replicate his production as a rookie is a big mistake. Derrick Henry’s health remains a question mark, as well. Tennessee was already a prime regression candidate as they ranked just 20th in DVOA, behind seven teams that missed the playoffs, and should struggle to replicate their success from last year.
However, the biggest reason I’m betting the Colts is their schedule. Indianapolis is tied for the easiest schedule in the AFC and the sixth-easiest schedule overall this season based on opponents’ combined 2021 records. With excellent infrastructure, improved quarterback play, healthier offensive line, and high-level defense that made improvements, it’s easy to see this being a great year for the Colts.