NFL Futures Friday: Picking Through Season-Long Props on PrizePicks
Last week, I wrote an article about injury probability and why unders are far more often the better bet on season-long NFL futures. I selected a handful of players with a high risk of injury for next season based on statistics from DraftSharks and recommended under bets on their props. This week, let’s have some fun. Everyone knows that overs are more fun to bet than unders, and PrizePicks has published lines for several players with some enticing opportunities for value. In this article, I’ll pick out a few PrizePicks wagers you should be making.
Matthew Stafford Over 4,550.5 Passing Yards and Cooper Kupp Over 1,300.5 Receiving Yards
These are directly correlated, so I’m including them in the same blurb as you should be building parlays with correlated statistics. While regression is likely for reigning Offensive Player of the Year and Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp, this number is much too low. Kupp finished with 1,947 receiving yards during the regular season last year. While Allen Robinson provides a boost to the receiving corps, he won’t be siphoning targets away from Stafford’s favorite pass-catcher. Stafford threw for 4,886 yards last season, and I’m certainly not expecting a decline of over 300 yards in his second year in Sean McVay’s offense. Fire up a PrizePicks entry with these two and have fun watching explosive offensive performances from the Rams all year.
Kirk Cousins Over 4,200.5 Passing Yards and Justin Jefferson Over 1,350.5 Receiving Yards
Similar to the Stafford and Kupp picks, these two bets are clearly quite correlated and should provide plenty of opportunity for success. Cousins has thrown for over 4,200 yards in each of his last two seasons in Minnesota, and his 17-game pace with the team is over 4,400 yards. Now, the team replaces run-first, old-school coach Mike Zimmer with Kevin O’Connell, who played a massive role in engineering the successful seasons of Stafford and Kupp last year. Jefferson will fill the Kupp role in the offense, and while that doesn’t mean he’ll beat Kupp’s historic numbers from last year, he’ll have every opportunity to top the 1,616 yards he had last season. I love the Vikings as a sleeper team this season, and these lines are too low for Cousins and Jefferson.
Breece Hall Over 850.5 Rushing Yards
While Breece Hall wasn’t a first-round pick, he certainly has the skill set that would have been selected much higher before the NFL became more aware of the lack of positional value for rushers. Hall dominated for three seasons at Iowa State with 3,941 rushing yards and no significant injuries. He tested as an elite athlete with a 97th percentile 40-yard dash and a 98th percentile speed score per PlayerProfiler. His Relative Athletic Score was 9.96, the seventh-best of 1,586 running back prospects since 1987. The Jets won’t be an elite offense this season, but they are on a clear upward trajectory, and Hall will get every bit of work he can handle. I have him projected as a 1,000-yard rusher in his first season.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 875.5 Rushing Yards
The fantasy football and betting world has seemingly given up on Ezekiel Elliott after two relatively lackluster seasons, but context is critical here. Zeke played through a partially torn PCL last season, and in 2020, Dak Prescott’s season-ending injury significantly hampered the offense’s overall viability. This year, Zeke is reportedly back to total health, and the workhorse back will be relied upon as a mainstay in the offense. Elliott has averaged over 1,200 yards per season through his six-year career, and the Cowboys return an elite offensive line. He’s missed just one game over the past three seasons. Don’t overthink this one – Elliott will be a 1,000-yard rusher this season.
Chris Olave Over 715.5 Receiving Yards
While I didn’t love the Saints’ value in their aggressive trade-up for Chris Olave, they selected the most pro-ready receiver in this year’s draft. Olave’s crisp route-running, excellent body control, and veteran ball skills make him ready to make an impact right away. Michael Thomas landed on the PUP list this week, and you’re fooling yourself if you think we’re seeing a peak version of him this season. With Alvin Kamara possibly being suspended for part of the year, Olave could be the Saints’ top skill player for a portion of the season. Even if Thomas and Kamara are healthy, I expect Olave to develop strong chemistry with Jameis Winston as his top downfield receiving weapon.
Travis Kelce Over 1,100.5 Receiving Yards
Consistency has been Travis Kelce’s middle name throughout his NFL career, as he’s gone over 1,100 yards in all but one season since 2015. Over that span, he’s been a six-time All-Pro player, seven-time Pro Bowler, and a Super Bowl champion. Kelce might be starting to decline in his career, but at 32 years old, he has plenty left in the tank. The Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill this offseason, and while they added JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie Skyy Moore, there’s no confusion over who the top receiving weapon in the offense is. Kelce will be peppered with targets this season, and with only two games missed since 2017, injuries aren’t a significant part of the calculation. Fire up Kelce in your PrizePicks entries.