NBA Player Props: Expert Picks (5/10/23)

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NBA Player Prop Picks (5/9/23)

The Wednesday slate features a Game 5 for both the New York versus Miami and Los Angeles versus Golden State series. Historically, teams that own a 3-2 lead go on to win the series 84% of the time. Therefore, it’s absolutely crucial for all four teams to secure a victory here.

Check out our favorite player props from this dynamite slate below, including our in-depth analysis and reasoning for our picks!

SGP – RJ Barrett 2+ 3PM & Max Strus 2+ 3PM (+100)

This series, Barrett is 1/5, 5/9, 2/7, and 3/5 from deep. The Heat are focused on defending Brunson and Randle, which has allowed Barrett to rack up good three-point looks. He’s also facing a Heat defense that allowed the 10th most open and wide open 3PA per 100 possessions during the regular season. Plus, ShotQuality ranks them 24th defending the three-point line in terms of opponent shot quality, and they allow the 2nd highest 3PA%. Overall, this Miami defense bleeds open threes, so look for Barrett to exploit this flaw. 

Meanwhile, Strus is the main shooter for Miami. He’s gone 2/5, 3/7, 3/10, and 4/10 from three in this series. Like Barrett, he also faces a porous perimeter defense as New York allowed the 4th most open and wide open 3PA per 100 possessions during the regular season. ShotQuality ranks them 16th defending the three-point line in terms of opponent shot quality, and they allow the 6th highest 3PA%. The Knicks’ three-point defense is better, but not by much. 

Basically, it’s a +100 play on Barrett having an average efficiency night and Strus having a below average one. Given the contest is at New York, I’m confident in Barrett here since home-court typically boosts shooting.

Jordan Poole Under 1.5 3PM (-146)

Poole opened the series by shooting 6/11 from three in Game 1; however, he’s 0/8 across the following three games. Poole has severely struggled with his shot, and his confidence appears to have taken a hit. That makes him unplayable due to his porous defense, and Steve Kerr knows this. Poole’s minutes have been slashed from 29 minutes in Game 1 to 10 minutes in Game 4. Gary Payton II has supplanted Poole as the third guard, while Donte DiVincenzo and Moses Moody are cutting into his minutes. 

It’s an elimination game, so I expect Kerr to keep Curry and Thompson on the court as long as possible – further reducing Poole’s potential minutes. I wouldn’t be shocked if Poole gets 5-7 minutes maximum here. Combine an expected minutes reduction with a shooting slump, and the under is tantalizing here regardless of the juiced odds. We even get leeway for a random Poole three since it’s under 1.5 3PM.

Anthony Davis First Basket (+440)

With Draymond Green starting at center, the Lakers are heavily favored to win the tip-off. Davis took Los Angeles’ First FGA in 27.7% of his starts during the regular season, which ranked 2nd behind LeBron James. However, James has rarely ventured into first basket territory during the playoffs, and Davis owns a great matchup here. While Green remains an elite defender, Davis’ size advantage is massive, especially with how well LeBron can throw a lob or entry pass. Plus, Davis can crash the offensive glass for a put-back – a Warriors weakness this season. 

Steve Kerr made this Green at center adjustment in Game 4, and Davis subsequently cashed the first basket. Getting +440 for him to repeat is excellent value, as Davis only needs to hit the first basket 19% of the time for the prop to hold a positive expected value.