Lakers vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay: WCF Game 1 (5/16/23)
Find an expert same game parlay bet for Tuesday night’s Western Conference Finals showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets. This same game parlay includes 4 legs and pays out $75 on a $10 bet.
Lakers vs Nuggets SGP Best Bets
The Western Conference was about as much of a blood bath as expected, now boiling down to two teams jockeying for a position in the NBA Finals. Those teams are the number one seed Denver Nuggets and the LeBron James led Los Angeles Lakers.
With the NBA action dwindling to a game a night, let’s dive deep into the matchup and muster up a SGP off of how I think the game script will go. The Nuggets opened up as the series moneyline favorite, hovering around -150 in most sportsbooks. They host the Lakers in game one, getting home court advantage as the top seed of the west.
Denver Nuggets -5.5
Spoiler alert. I think the Nuggets are going to roll in this series as I put a multi-unit position on them on their series moneyline. That starts off with game one, a game in which they should have little issue in taking advantage of a hobbled Lakers unit.
Anthony Davis suffered a facial injury in game five of their series against the Warriors, yet avoided concussion protocol with reports quickly surfacing that he was fine. His game six performance indicated otherwise, playing passive throughout much of the contest.
I am hard pressed to believe that he is suddenly fine a few days later, now getting the grueling matchup against Nikola Jokic. Jokic should have little to no issue in outplaying a passive Davis early in the series, running the offense through the interior as the league’s best dual threat big man. Take this at no higher than -6.
Anthony Davis u22.5 Points
The theme of fading Anthony Davis runs into the second leg of our SGP as Nikola Jokic physical style of play will limit the amount of high quality looks Davis will be generating in the interior. Jokic is severely underrated for his defense as his offensive ability routinely takes center stage for his jaw dropping stat lines.
He was able to limit the offensive minded Deandre Ayton, now getting the same type of offensive threat in Anthony Davis who is also dealing with a head injury. Like Ayton, Davis is passive as well, and seemingly wants to avoid any sort of contact when he fails to get going in the scoring department.
The Nuggets also did a good job in masking their weakness in limiting offensive rebounds later in the series against the Suns, throwing more bodies into the interior to help limit second chance scoring opportunities. This same style of aggression can be used against the Lakers as they can dare them to shoot over the top as a weak perimeter shooting unit.
Michael Porter Jr o2.5 Threes
A staple of the Nuggets offense, Porter Jr plays an integral part in spacing out the defense with his elite perimeter shooting. Playing as a spot up shooter, Porter Jr finds himself in good position to get high quality looks as Jokic shifts the defense with his interior presence and hits his shooters in stride.
At least that was the case until the second round against the Suns, going ice cold throughout a majority of the series. A rough patch, yet something I did not bat an eye at as his attempts and quality of look remained the same.
One cause of concern is the Lakers ability to defend the three, ranking second in the league per TeamRankings by holding opposing offenses to a lowly 34.3%. The issue with that statistic is that the Lakers will be forced to sag off the perimeter to double Jokic, leaving them exposed over the top.
Nikola Jokic o9.5 Assists
If the Lakers defense resembles anything that we were accustomed to seeing in their previous matchups against the Nuggets, then expect a lot of double teams on the post in an attempt to get the ball out of Jokic’s hands.
This will lead him to rely on more of his facilitating, increasing the number of potential assists. The looks off of his assists should come with a higher percent chance of being converted as well as the previously mentioned double teams will open up gaps in the Lakers defense for the Nuggets shooters to exploit.
SGP Betting Card
- Nuggets -5.5
- Anthony Davis u22.5 Points
- Michael Porter Jr o2.5 Threes
- Nikola Jokic o9.5 Assists
Full SGP Odds: +750 ($10 wins $75)