Denver Broncos Vs. Los Angeles Chargers NFL Player Props & Picks (10/17/22)
Get Denver Broncos Vs. Los Angeles Chargers player prop picks & odds for the (10/17/22) matchup
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Denver Broncos Vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Picks
On Monday Night Football in Week 6, we’ll see divisional rivals face off who have had difficult starts to the 2022 season. Both the Broncos and Chargers have dealt with considerable injury difficulties, and that will affect their ability to compete moving forward. However, it doesn’t take away from the potential value in the player props market – in fact, it can help us find great value opportunities. In this article, I’ll dive into my favorite player props to consider from this primetime game. You can use the player prop search tool above to find the best odds for the Broncos vs. Chargers game.
Russell Wilson Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings)
Russell Wilson has been more willing to take off and run in recent weeks, and he’s averaging 22.6 rushing yards over his last three games. He’s also averaging 4.6 rushing attempts per game over that stretch after only three total attempts over his first two games with the team.
This week, Wilson faces a Chargers defense that ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA and 32nd in yards per carry allowed. While Joey Bosa remains out, the Chargers can put pressure on Wilson, particularly behind an offensive line that’s now missing its best player left tackle Garrett Bolles.
Last week, the Chargers allowed Jacoby Brissett to pick up 32 rushing yards on just three carries, and Brissett isn’t significantly more effective as a runner than Wilson. I’ll bet on recent trends continuing for the Broncos quarterback in a matchup that should favor his ability to pick up yards on the ground.
Courtland Sutton Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+195 DraftKings)
There’s too much value at this line. The Broncos’ red-zone struggles have been extensively discussed, but there’s been one constant – Sutton is the go-to target in that area. He has four red-zone targets this year, the second-most on the team behind only Javonte Williams, and his big-bodied frame and physicality mean that won’t be changing anytime soon.
The Chargers rank just 19th in red-zone defense this season, and they have allowed a touchdown on 57.9% of opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line. Sutton has been close to a touchdown in the red-zone on numerous occasions, and it simply hasn’t clicked for a variety of reasons.
Russell Wilson only has a 2.4% touchdown rate this season, which is well below his career rate of 6.0%. While some of that is due to his lack of chemistry with his receivers and the injury he’s dealing with, that number is due for significant positive regression. Let’s bet on that starting this week as Sutton has a winnable matchup against J.C. Jackson who has underwhelmed in his first season in Los Angeles.
Austin Ekeler Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel)
This season hasn’t been particularly successful for Austin Ekeler in terms of running the ball, but he broke out last week with 173 yards on the ground, by far a season-high. Outside of that game, Ekeler is averaging just 35 rushing yards per game, but he has gone over this mark listed at FanDuel in each of his last two games.
This week, Ekeler gets an opportunity against a Denver run defense that ranks 15th in DVOA and 20th in yards per carry allowed despite not exactly facing a murderer’s row of opposing running backs. Last week, former undrafted free agent Deon Jackson picked up 62 yards on the ground. Jeff Wilson Jr. and Dameon Pierce hit that mark in the prior two weeks.
Denver’s pass defense has been excellent this season, ranking second in DVOA, and it’s the best pass defense that Justin Herbert has faced this year. With a banged up offensive line and a receiving corps missing Keenan Allen, the passing game likely won’t be overly effective. Look for the Chargers to turn to the run game more frequently and for Ekeler to find success given the matchup.